Maharashtra is home to roughly 9% of India’s population, contributes about 13% to GDP, and its capital, Mumbai, is considered to be the country’s economic capital. The State has also played a central role in Indian politics, and this year’s Assembly election too will have ripple effects across the country. The central leadership of the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) and the Congress are paying close attention to the State. During the BRICS summit in Kazan, Russia, Prime Minister Narendra Modi presented handicrafts from Maharashtra to the leaders of Uzbekistan and Iran and artwork from Jharkhand, another election-going State, to Russian President Vladimir Putin. Congress leader Rahul Gandhi has instructed his party to ensure that its alliance partners are carried along. Though the BJP does not hold the Chief Minister’s post in the ruling Mahayuti alliance, it is the senior partner. Since 2014, the BJP has a strategy in place for the State that edged out Shiv Sena — now split into two factions, one of which remains a BJP ally — to emerge as the biggest party. In the 2024 general election, though the BJP’s seat tally declined from 23 to nine, at 26%, it had the highest share of votes. The party, buoyed by its victory in the Haryana Assembly election — where it retained power for a third consecutive term — is hoping to consolidate its position in the western State.
The Opposition Maha Vikas Aghadi (MVA), which comprises the Congress, the Thackeray faction of the Sena and the Sharad Pawar faction of the Nationalist Congress Party (NCP), is trying to sustain the social coalition that helped it in the general election. The debate on caste reservations had turned a large number of subaltern communities, particularly Dalits, against the BJP then. The BJP is trying to reverse its setback by blaming Muslims and seeking polarisation along religious lines. The MVA will have to fight the BJP at the level of ideas and try and outsmart it in the management of the electoral campaign to remain in the contest. Grand themes such as nationalism, communalism and constitutionalism may sway voters, but in close contests, several granular factors could be the determinants that could change the course of the elections. Voter behaviour is significantly different when it comes to the Lok Sabha and Assembly elections even when they are held simultaneously. Bickering in the alliance continues over the issue of seat sharing, with just three weeks to go before polling day on November 20. The three lead partners have a very narrow window now to reconcile their conflicting ambitions and claims and accommodate smaller outfits and social groups.