Contrary to pollsters’ predictions, the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) has managed to retain power in Haryana by increasing its seats from 40 to 48 and vote share from 36.5% to 39.9%, securing a third consecutive term. The Congress’s vote share also accrued a whopping 11 points to register 39.1% but its seat tally increased marginally, by six, to 37. The two regional parties catering to the influential Jat community, the Indian National Lok Dal (INLD) and Jannayak Janta Party (JJP) did poorly as their combined vote share fell from 21% in 2019 to 7% in 2024, aiding the Congress. But the BJP’s astute social engineering, gaining support from non-Jat OBCs by propping up leaders from among them, besides its strengths in urban areas, helped it sail through. This is a remarkable achievement for the BJP which was saddled not just with anti-incumbency but also facing a resurgent Congress that was projected to win more seats. While the farmer and wrestler-led agitations helped the Congress to do well in rural areas, it was not enough to break the BJP’s social coalition there or dent the BJP’s urban strongholds. The grand old party’s bugbear, a divided party leadership, did not help matters. The win also adds gloss to the BJP’s central leadership that had taken some flak since the party’s underwhelming performance in the 2024 general election. The Congress will have to go back to the drawing board to rework its strategy of upending the BJP in the Hindi heartland.
In Jammu and Kashmir, the results went almost as predicted. The BJP retained its hold on Jammu while surrendering the Valley. The party’s claim that it had transformed the state failed to convince the masses, many of whom couldn’t use their mobile phones for long periods. The abrogation of Article 370 might have found supporters across the country, but in Kashmir, it was seen as an abrogation of the Centre’s trust in the people. Union Home Minister Amit Shah, credited with splitting the state into two Union Territories, found favour only with the BJP cadres. The decision wasn’t even mentioned in any election manifestoes. It’s no surprise that the party faced a rout in the Valley, and its strategy of splitting anti-BJP votes also didn’t work.
The results suggest that the National Conference-Congress alliance will form the government. Rahul Gandhi’s Bharat Jodo Yatra, which culminated in Srinagar, helped reconnect the Congress with Kashmiris, but the victory is clearly the National Conference’s. The Congress didn’t make much headway in Jammu either — it was more of a piggyback ride for them. The People’s Democratic Party was routed, largely due to its past willingness to ally with the BJP, which had always demanded the abrogation of Article 370. The success of the NC, especially Omar Abdullah, shows that in politics, no leader is out of bounds if they are ready to amend their ways, take up public issues, and regain popular support. Abdullah now faces the challenge of providing stable governance while likely being needled by the Central government.
While the people of Haryana can expect stable governance for the next five years, Abdullah’s challenges are manifold. Without the shield of Article 370, he must combat the perception that J&K is governed by an LG and advisers from outside the state. The Centre must respect the mandate, accelerate the process of restoring statehood and allow the newly elected government to fulfil its promises. This is an imperative as even if the autocratic steps of the last few years have not brought back the dark days of the militancy of the 1990s, palpable despondency and disenchantment are evident. Statehood and a vibrant Assembly would help reactivate the political, administrative and civic aspects of democracy beyond electioneering and rule by fiat from the Centre.